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The effects of global temperature change on hurricane intensity and duration in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean sea basins from 1900-2005

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Identifier	Thesis 2112
Author	Edgar, Martin Earl, 1956-
Title	The effects of global temperature change on hurricane intensity and duration in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean sea basins from 1900-2005
Publisher	Central Connecticut State University
Date	2010; *
Resource Type	Master's Thesis
Notes	Over the past 22 years there has been a lot of discussion about global temperature change and it’s possible effect on all elements of hurricanes and tropical storms including intensity, duration, rainfall, and number. Some have said that the warming of the world’s oceans over the past century has caused a rise in the number, intensity and duration of hurricanes in all the world’s ocean basins, while others have contended there have been little if any changes over that time period. In the Atlantic in particular, where one has the best data base of any of the world’s oceans (over 150 years) related to tropical cyclones, the issue of global temperature change has been given even closer examination and the findings their have been as controversial and divergent as any global temperature change issue. Some believe that hurricane intensity and duration changes are due to natural atmospheric changes that have always taken place in the Atlantic Ocean atmosphere over long periods of time. These include multi-decadal variability (periodic changes in the number, intensity and duration of Atlantic hurricanes over a period from 10 to 40 years), the Thermohaline Circulation, i i i and shorter term natural changes such as the West African Sahel Monsoon, Julian-Madden Oscillation, and ENSO (The La Niña and El Niño phase changes). Others believe a gradual increase in global sea surface temperatures of up to 1degree C over the past century has caused increases in Atlantic hurricane intensity and duration by either altering both the long term and short term natural atmospheric changes previously mentioned or introducing new elements of sea surface and atmospheric change not seen before. The goal of this paper is to try to determine if global temperature changes during the past century have had any influence over Atlantic and Caribbean Basin hurricane intensity or duration over that same period of time. To do this, I used the HURDAT hurricane data from the National Hurricane Center from 1900 thru 2005 and examined two components of Atlantic hurricane intensity and one of duration. The two parts of hurricane intensity I looked at were: Overall Atlantic general hurricane intensity changes category 1-5 and category 4/5 hurricane intensity changes and their number. In addition, I also looked at changes in overall Atlantic and Caribbean hurricane duration.. The results found over the past 105 years showed a small increase in general overall Atlantic and Caribbean basin category 1-5 hurricane intensity at 3%, a slight increase in category 4/5 hurricane intensities of 3-6%. General category 1-5 hurricane numbers have increased between 20% and 29% while category 4/5 hurricane numbers increased between 30% and 40% in the Atlantic over the past 105 years. Therefore, it is the conclusion of this author that, although there are some increases i v in both general category 1-5 hurricane and especially category 4/5 intensity and their number, a lot more data must be collected over time to determine if the increases continue and if they do, are they associated with either global temperature change or natural factors effecting hurricane intensity such as ocean current changes, ENSO, or other localized or regional changes in the atmosphere of the tropical Atlantic? It must also be concluded that Atlantic category 1-5 duration has changed very little over the past century between.8% and 12% and this may be due in part to more subtropical baroclinic hurricane development that has taken place from non-easterly wave sources such as, old polar fronts, upper level troughs in the midlatitude westerly jet stream that develop surface lows in the subtropical Atlantic, and midlatitude cyclones that move there way into the subtropics that take on tropical cyclone characteristics during hurricane season. In summary, with the exception of the more notable increase in Atlantic category 4/5 hurricane intensity and number, there has been little change in Atlantic general category 1-5 hurricane intensity, number and duration throughout the 105 year period of this work
Subject	Global temperature changes Hurricanes
Department	Department of Physics and Earth Science
Advisor	Newman, Steven B.
Type	Text
Digital Format	application/pdf
Language	eng
OCLC number	804653125
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The effects of global temperature change on hurricane intensity and duration in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean sea basins from 1900-2005

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